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Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents
Risk and Uncertainty Measurement and Metrics Game Theory Forecasting and Prediction
2015/4/23
This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of over...
Multi-Stage Novice Defensive Driver Training Program: Does It Create Overconfidence?
Novice Driver Training Skill-Based Training Novice Driver Safety Driver Overconfidence Multi-Stage Driver Training
2013/1/28
Multi-stage training programs have been recommended to transfer knowledge and skills to high-risk novice drivers. However, some have suggested there is a link between skill training and an increased c...
Behavioural breaks in the heterogeneous agent model: the impact of herding, overconfidence, and market sentiment
heterogeneous agent model behavioural nance herding overcondence market sentiment stock market crash
2012/6/5
The main aim of this work is to incorporate selected findings from behavioural finance into a Heterogeneous Agent Model using the Brock and Hommes (1998) framework. In particular, we analyse the dynam...