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VERIFICATION AND VALIDATION OF DESERT DUST FORECASTS AND THEIR IMPACT ON RESPRIATORY HEALTH APPLICATIONS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
Satellite remote sensing Environmental pollution Image understanding Spatio-temporal modelling Medicine Multi-spectral remote sensing Visualization
2015/12/29
The paper describes the performance of the Dust Regional Atmospheric Model (DREAM) after being nested within the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP/eta) operational weather model. The...
CROP MODEL DATA ASSIMILATION WITH THE ENSEMBLE KALMAN FILTER FOR IMPROVING REGIONAL CROP YIELD FORECASTS
Crop model data assimilation Ensemble Kalman filter
2015/9/8
Uncertainty in spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall in regional crop yield
simulations comprises a major fraction of the error on crop model simulation results. In
this paper we used an Ens...
Simple smoothed seismicity earthquake forecasts for Italy
Smoothed seismicity Earthquake predictability Forecast optimization Area skill score
2015/8/28
Several earthquake forecast experiments in Italy have been initiated within the European testing center of the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability. In preparation for these...
Adaptively smoothed seismicity earthquake forecasts for Italy
Italy smoothed seismicity earthquake
2015/8/28
We present a model for estimation of the probabilities of future earthquakes of magnitudes m ≥ 4.95 in Italy. This model is a modified version of that proposed for California, USA, by Helmstetter et a...
Retrospective evaluation of the five-year and ten-year CSEP-Italy earthquake forecasts
Probabilistic forecasting Earthquake predictability Hypothesis testing Likelihood
2015/8/28
On August 1, 2009, the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) launched a prospective and comparative earthquake predictability experiment in Italy. The goal of this CSE...
Daily earthquake forecasts during the May-June 2012 Emilia earthquake sequence (northern Italy)
Operational earthquake forecast ETAS
2015/8/26
On May 20, 2012, at 02:03 UTC, a magnitude Ml 5.9 earthquake hit part of the Po Plain area (latitude, 44.89 ˚N; longitude, 11.23 ˚E) close to the village of Finale-Emilia in the Emilia-Romag...
Three-dimensional visualization of ensemble weather forecasts–Part 1:The visualization tool Met.3D (version 1.0)
Three-dimensional visualization ensemble weather visualization tool Met.3D
2015/8/6
We present "Met.3D", a new open-source tool for the interactive three-dimensional (3-D) visualization of numerical ensemble weather predictions. The tool has been developed to support weather forecast...
Three-dimensional visualization of ensemble weather forecasts–Part 2:Forecasting warm conveyor belt situations for aircraft-based field campaigns
Three-dimensional visualization ensemble weather Forecasting warm conveyor belt situations aircraft-based field campaigns
2015/8/6
We present the application of interactive three-dimensional (3-D) visualization of ensemble weather predictions to forecasting warm conveyor belt situations during aircraft-based atmospheric research ...
Coastal Forecasts and Storm Surge Predictions for Tropical Cyclones: A Timely Partnership Program
Tropical Cyclones Coastal Forecasts
2015/7/23
As more people and associated infrastructure concentrate along coastal areas, the United States is becoming more vulnerable to the impact of tropical cyclones. It is not surprising, especially after t...
Generalized Vertical Coordinates for Eddy-Resolving Global and Coastal Ocean Forecasts
Eddy-Resolving Global Coastal Ocean
2015/7/23
Numerical modeling studies over the past several decades have demonstrated progress both in model architecture and in the use of rapidly advancing computational resources. Perhaps the most notable asp...
Futures prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy
Federal funds futures Monetary policy
2015/7/23
Many researchers have used federal funds futures rates as measures of financial markets’
expectations of future monetary policy. However, to the extent that federal funds futures
reflect...
Applications of GODAE Ocean Current Forecasts to Search and Rescue and Ship Routing
GODAE Ocean Current Search and Rescue
2015/7/6
As GODAE ocean forecast systems progress, their contributions toward improving the safety and efficiency of operations at sea will increase. In this article, we review present uses of GODAE ocean fore...
High-Resolution Global and Basin-Scale Ocean Analyses and Forecasts
Ocean Analyses Forecasts
2015/7/6
The feasibility of global ocean weather prediction was just emerging as the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) began in 1997. Ocean weather includes phenomena such as meandering current...
Valuation When Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased
Forecasting and Prediction Cash Flow Cost of Capital Performance Expectations Prejudice and Bias Valuation
2015/4/23
This paper focuses adaptations to the discount cash flow (DCF) method when valuing forecasted cash flows that are biased measures of expected cash flows. I imagine a simple setting where the expected ...