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Probabilistic wind speed forecasting using Bayesian model averaging with truncated normal components
Bayesian model averaging continuous ranked probability score ensemble calibration truncated normal distribution
2013/6/13
Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical method for post-processing forecast ensembles of atmospheric variables, obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models, in order to ...
Combining Dynamic Predictions from Joint Models for Longitudinal and Time-to-Event Data using Bayesian Model Averaging
Prognostic Modeling Risk Prediction
2013/4/27
The joint modeling of longitudinal and time-to-event data is an active area of statistics research that has received a lot of attention in the recent years. More recently, a new and attractive applica...
Criteria for Bayesian model choice with application to variable selection
Model selection variable selection objective Bayes.
2012/11/23
In objective Bayesian model selection, no single criterion has emerged as dominant in defining objective prior distributions. Indeed, many criteria have been separately proposed and utilized to propos...
Criteria for Bayesian model choice with application to variable selection
Model selection variable selection objective Bayes.
2012/11/23
In objective Bayesian model selection, no single criterion has emerged as dominant in defining objective prior distributions. Indeed, many criteria have been separately proposed and utilized to propos...
The Dependence of Routine Bayesian Model Selection Methods on Irrelevant Alternatives
Bayesian Model Selection Methods Alternatives
2012/9/17
Bayesian methods - either based on Bayes Factors or BIC - are now widely used for model selection. One property that might reasonably be demanded of any model
selection method is that if a modelM1 is...
Application of Bayesian model inadequacy criterion for multiple data sets to radial velocity models of exoplanet systems
Methods Statistical – Techniques Radial velocities – Stars Individual: GJ 581 HD 217107 υ Andromedae
2011/7/7
We present a simple mathematical criterion for determining whether a given statistical model does not describe several independent sets of measurements, or data modes, adequately. We derive this crite...
A Bayesian Model of NMR Spectra for the Deconvolution and Quantification of Metabolites in Complex Biological Mixtures
metabolomics concentration estimation prior information multi component model block updates
2011/6/17
Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) spectra are widely used in metabolomics to
obtain profiles of metabolites dissolved in biofluids such as cell supernatants. Methods
for estimating metabolite concent...
Evolutionary Stochastic Search for Bayesian model exploration
Evolutionary Monte Carlo Fast Scan Metropolis-Hastings schemes Linear Gaussian regressionmodels Variable selection
2010/3/10
Implementing Bayesian variable selection for linear Gaussian regression models for analysing
high dimensional data sets is of current interest in many fields. In order to make such analysis operation...
Bayesian Model Diagnostics Based on Artificial Autoregressive Errors
Allometry Asymptotic normality Autocorrelation Hierarchical models Response times
2009/9/22
In this article I develop a simple and eective device for ascertaining the quality
of the modeling choices and detecting lack-of-fit. I specify an articial autoregres-
sive structure (AAR) in the pr...
Bayesian Model Assessment Using Pivotal Quantities
prior-predictive density posterior-predictive density Bayesian model diagnostics Bayesian chi-squared test
2009/9/22
Suppose that S(Y) is a function of data Y and a model parameter,
and suppose that the sampling distribution of S(Y) is invariant when evaluated
at , the true (i.e., data-generating) value of. Then S...
Nonparametric Bayesian model selection and averaging
Adaptation rate of convergence Bayes factor rate of contraction
2009/9/16
We consider nonparametric Bayesian estimation of a probability density p based on a random sample of size n from this density using a hierarchical prior. The prior consists, for instance, of prior wei...
Bayesian Model Averaging and Bayesian Predictive Information Criterion for Model Selection
Bayesian model averaging Bayesian predictive information criterion Markov chain Monte Carlo
2009/3/5
The problem of evaluating the goodness of the predictive distributions developed by the Bayesian model averaging approach is investigated. Considering the maximization of the posterior mean of the exp...