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Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts: An illustration using a simple projection model
Bayesian Bayesian approach England model averaging population forecasting Wales
2014/11/25
Background: Population forecasts are widely used for public policy purposes. Methods to quantify the uncertainty in forecasts tend to ignore model uncertainty and to be based on a single model.Objecti...
Probabilistic household forecasts based on register data- the case of Denmark and Finland
Denmark Finland household projection probabilistic projection
2014/11/24
Background: Household forecasts are important for public planning and for predicting consumer demand.Objective: The purpose of this paper is to compute probabilistic household forecasts for Finland an...
Point and interval forecasts of age-specific life expectancies: A model averaging approach
Booth-Maindonald-Smith method functional data analysis Hyndman-Ullah method Lee-Carter method Lee-Miller method principal components analysis random walk with drift
2014/11/21
Background: Any improvement in the forecast accuracy of life expectancy would be beneficial for policy decision regarding the allocation of current and future resources. In this paper, I revisit some ...
Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: A comparison of ten principal component methods
mortality rates life expectancy Point
2014/11/20
Using the age- and sex-specific data of 14 developed countries, we compare the point
and interval forecast accuracy and bias of ten principal component methods for forecasting mortality rates a...
Why population forecasts should be probabilistic - illustrated by the case of Norway
cohort component method, forecast errors forecasting simulation stochastic population forecast time series uncertainty
2008/12/1
Deterministic population forecasts do not give an appropriate indication of forecast uncertainty. Forecasts should be probabilistic, rather than deterministic, so that their expected accuracy can be a...