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Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions
Business cycle Expansion Recession State space model Macroeconomic forecasting Dynamic factor model Contraction Turning point
2015/9/18
We construct a framework for measuring economic activity at high frequency, potentially in real time. We use a variety of stock and flow data observed at mixed frequencies (including very high frequen...
Real-Time Macroeconomic Monitoring:Real Activity,Inflation,and Interactions
Nowcasting Prices Wages Business cycle Expansion Contraction Recession Turning point State-space model Dynamic factor model
2015/9/18
We sketch a framework for monitoring macroeconomic activity in real-time andpush it in new directions. In particular, we focus not only on real activity, which has received most attention to date, but...
To honor Martin Feldstein抯 distinguished leadership and extraordinary
contributions to the National Bureau of Economic Research,
the Feldstein Lecture addresses an important question in applied econ...