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Effcts of Diffrent Methods of Aggregation of Probabilities on the R&D Investment Portfolio for Optimal Emissions Abatement: An Empirical Evaluation
Probabilities on the R&D Investment Portfolio Optimal Emissions Abatement An Empirical Evaluation
2014/10/22
This thesis examines two possible orders of combining multiple experts in elicitations with multiple de-composed events: Should experts be combined early or later in the decision process? This thesis ...
A CB (corporate bond) pricing probabilities and recovery rates model for deriving default probabilities and recovery rates
Government Bond (GB) model Corporate Bond (CB) model Term Structure of Default Probabilities (TSDP) Recovery Rate (RR) Credit Default Swap (CDS) business portfolio, credit risk management
2012/9/14
In this paper we formulate a corporate bond (CB) pricing model for deriving the term structure of default probabilities (TSDP) and the recov-ery rate (RR) for each pair of industry factor and credit r...
Scaling properties of first-passage time probabilities in financial markets
Scaling properties first-passage time probabilities financial markets
2011/7/19
Financial markets provide an ideal frame for the study of first-passage time events of non-
Gaussian correlated dynamics mainly because large data sets are available. Tick-by-tick data of six futures...
Ruin probabilities in tough times - Part 2 - Heavy-traffic approximation for fractionally differentiated random walks in the domain of attraction of a nonGaussian stable distribution
heavy traffic ruin probability fractional random walk FARIMA process Poisson process
2011/3/23
Motivated by applications to insurance mathematics, we prove some heavy-traffic limit theorems for processes which encompass the fractionally differentiated random walk as well as some FARIMA processe...
Validation of credit default probabilities via multiple testing procedures
credit default probabilities testing procedures
2010/10/21
We apply multiple testing procedures to the validation of estimated default probabilities in credit rating systems. The goal is to identify rating classes for which the probability of default is estim...
Probabilities of Positive Returns and Values of Call Options
Black-Scholes formula probability of positive return growth rate of stock price
2010/11/3
The true probability of a European call option to achieve positive return is investigated under the Black-Scholes model. It is found that the probability is determined by those market factors appearin...
Dynamic Estimation of Credit Rating Transition Probabilities
Credit Rating Transition Probabilities
2010/11/3
We present a continuous-time maximum likelihood estimation methodology for credit rating
transition probabilities, taking into account the presence of censored data. We perform
rolling estimates of ...
This work aims at a deeper understanding of the mathematical implications of the economically-sound condition of absence of arbitrages of the first kind in a financial market. In the
spirit of the Fu...
Do option markets correctlyprice the probabilities of movement of the underlying asset?
State-price densities Risk-neutral densities Densitycomparison Arbitrage relationships Girsanov's Theorem Implied volatilitysmile Jump risk Peso problem
2014/3/13
We answer this question bycomparing te risk-neutral densityestimated in complete markets from cross-section of S&P 500 option prices to the risk-neutral densityinferred from the time series densityof ...