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The Future Has Thicker Tails than the Past: Model Error As Branching Counterfactuals
Fukushima Counterfactual histories Risk management Epistemology of probability Model errors Fragility and Antifragility Fourth Quadrant
2012/11/23
Ex ante forecast outcomes should be interpreted as counterfactuals (potential histories), with errors as the spread between outcomes. Reapplying measurements of uncertainty about the estimation errors...
Bayesian astrostatistics: a backward look to the future
Bayesian astrostatistics backward look the future
2012/9/18
This volume contains presentations from the first invited session on astrostatistics to be held at an International Statistical Institute (ISI) World Statistics Congress. This session was a major mile...
Comment on "Bayesian astrostatistics: a backward look to the future" by Tom Loredo
Comment "Bayesian astrostatistics: a backward look to the future" Tom Loredo
2012/9/18
This short note points out two of the incongruences that I findin the Loredo (2012) comments on Andreon (2012), i.e. on my chapter written for the book “Astrostatistical Challenges for the New Astrono...
On the future of astrostatistics: statistical foundations and statistical practice
On the future of astrostatistics statistical foundations statistical practice
2012/9/18
This paper summarizes a presentation for a panel discussionon “The Future of Astrostatis-tics” held at the Statistical Challenges in Modern Astronomy Vconference at Pennsylvania State University in Ju...
It has been argued by Daryl Bem in his 2011 paper that 8 out of 9 experiments yielded statistically significant results in favour of the psi effect.
Human Identity Verification based on Heart Sounds: Recent Advances and Future Directions
Human Identity Verification Heart Sounds Recent Advances Future Directions
2011/6/21
Identity verification is an increasingly important process in our daily lives. Whether we need
to use our own equipment or to prove our identity to third parties in order to use services or
gain acc...
Fast approximate inference with INLA: the past, the present and the future
Latent Gaussian models Bayesian Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation
2011/6/17
Latent Gaussian models are an extremely popular, flexible class of models. Bayesian inference for
these models is, however, tricky and time consuming. Recently, Rue, Martino and Chopin introduced
th...
Familiar statistical tests and estimates are obtained by the direct observation of cases of interest: a clinical trial of a new drug, for instance, will compare the drug's effects on a relevant set of...
Our three discussants fit an “ideal statistican”profile, combining deep theoretical understanding with serious scientific interests. The three essayswhich are more than commentaries on my articlerefle...
The Past and the Future in the Present
Chaotic Dynamics (nlin.CD) Information Theory (cs.IT) Dynamical Systems (math.DS) Statistics Theory (math.ST)
2010/12/17
We show how the shared information between the past and future---the excess entropy---derives from the components of directional information stored in the present---the predictive and retrodictive cau...