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The evaluation of lifesaving programs whose benefits extend into the future involves two discounting issues. The intragenerational discounting problem is how to express, in age-; dollars, reductions ...
Valuing Future Risks to Life     Life  Future Risks       2015/9/18
nvironmental policies that alter future mortality rates may affect both current and future generations. This paper examines willingness to pay for future risk reductions from the perspective of the ...
We attempt to recover a function of unknown smoothness from noisy, sampled data. We introduce a procedure, SureShrink, which suppresses noise by thresholding the empirical wavelet coecients. The th...
Bond Risk Premia     Bond Risk Premia  central result       2015/7/23
We study time variation in expected excess bond returns. We run regressions of one-year excess returns on initial forward rates. We find that a single factor, a single tent-shaped linear combi...
We specify a life-cycle model of consumption, labor supply and job mobility in an economy with search frictions. We distinguish different sources of risk, including shocks to productivity, job arr...
We develop a structural econometric model to estimate risk preferences from data on deductible choices in auto insurance contracts. We account for adverse selection by modeling unobserved heterogene...
ìBig dataîand statistical techniques to score potential transactions have transformed insurance and credit markets. In this paper, we observe that these widely-used statistical scores summarize a...
短生命周期产品的订货时机而言,零售商通常偏好延迟订货,而制造商一般鼓励零售商预先订货,制造商和零售商对于订货时机的选择偏好通常是冲突的,对此进行协调可以提高供应链效率。目前,关于供应链订货时机的文献大多假定企业是风险中性的,遵循风险厌恶假设的文献较少。由一个风险厌恶型制造商和风险中性零售商组成的二级供应链中,基于报童模型,探讨了制造商的风险厌恶对供应链订货时机的影响,研究发现多数情况下供应链将处于...
合理的风险分配是实施设计施工总承包模式的重要保障。在分析联合体成员公平偏好的基础上,通过对FS模型的改进,构建了联合体牵头方与联合体成员之间的Stackelberg博弈模型,从联合体成员嫉妒负效用以及同情正效用两方面,对联合体牵头方的最优风险分配以及联合体成员的最优风险投入进行了均衡分析。最后,采用调研获取的参数分析了不同风险承担比例下联合体成员的公平偏好系数对联合体成员风险投入、联合体成员效用、...
The comprehensive risk analysis of a business such as farming entails questions on what is at stake, how important is the risk concern and how to deal with it. We performed a sequential mixed method, ...
The paper examines a systematic interrelationship between the world oil and agricultural commodity prices, taking the role of the USD and the perceived global market risks into consideration for the p...
The article focuses on selected aspects of risk management in agricultural business with the aim to discuss and compare different hedging methods which are relevant for managing the commodity risks as...
h e precise agricultural operations research models claiming complex solutions and specialized software tools may appear too complicated to truly support the decision making process on the farm leve...
This report describes a workshop, based on the Foresight on Green Jobs project and held in Bilbao on 12 and 13 November 2013 for the EU-OSHA Focal Points. The aims of the workshop were to raise the Fo...
针对突发事件应急方案选择问题, 提出一种考虑决策者行为因素的混合多属性风险决策方法. 首先, 分析归 纳突发事件应急方案选择问题决策信息结构的基本特征; 然后, 引入前景理论中的价值函数, 通过将备选方案两两比 较和基元情景交叉判断的方式计算方案各属性的前景价值, 并运用二元语义模型计算各方案的综合价值, 据此确定 方案排序; 最后, 通过算例研究表明了所提出方法的有效性和可行性.

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