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中国地质大学科学技术发展院许磊，陈能成 等, 国家地理信息系统工程技术研究中心. Earth-Science Reviews (2021)，Spatiotemporal forecasting in earth system science: Methods, uncertainties, predictability and future directions（图）
时空；预测；问题；信息；系统；工程
2021/10/14
近日，国家地理信息系统工程技术研究中心陈能成教授团队在地球科学领域顶级期刊《Earth-Science Reviews》（IF=12.413）上刊发研究成果—Spatiotemporal forecasting in earth system science: Methods, uncertainties, predictability and future directions。该文针对地球系统...
The limits of predictability of volcanic eruptions from accelerating rates of earthquakes
Time-series analysis Volcano seismology Statistical seismology
2014/5/19
Volcanic eruptions are commonly preceded by increased rates of earthquakes. Previous studies argue that in some instances these sequences follow the inverse Omori law (IOL) and that this model could b...
The dilatancy-diffusion hypothesis and earthquake predictability
dilatancy-diffusion hypothesis earthquake predictability
2014/5/19
The dilatancy–diffusion hypothesis was one of the first attempts to predict the form of potential geophysical signals that may precede earthquakes, and hence provide a possible physical basis for eart...
Predictability of extreme events in a branching diffusion model
extreme events branching diffusion model
2010/4/6
We propose a framework for studying predictability of extreme events in complex systems. Major conceptual elements -- hierarchical structure, spatial dynamics, and external driving -- are combined in ...
Predictability of prototype flash flood events in the Western Mediterranean under uncertainties of the precursor upper-level disturbance
Western Mediterranean precursor upper-level disturbance
2010/1/27
The HYDROPTIMET case studies 9-10/06/2000 Catalogne, 8-9/09/2002 Cévennes and 24-26/11/2002 Piémont encompass prototype flash-flood situations in the western Mediterranean, attending to the relevant s...
Predictability and Prediction for an Experimental Cultural Market
Social dynamics prediction theoretical analysis empirical analysis.
2010/4/7
Individuals are often influenced by the behavior of others, for instance because they wish to obtain the benefits of coordinated actions or infer otherwise inaccessible information. In such situations...
Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical northern hemisphere
climate predictability extratropical northern hemisphere
2009/11/16
A novel application of a technique developed from chaos theory is used in describing seasonal to interannual climate predictability over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The technique is based on an empi...
A reexamination of methods for evaluating the predictability of the atmosphere
methods for evaluating predictability of the atmosphere
2009/11/13
Pioneering work by Lorenz (1965, 1968, 1969) developed a number of methods for exploring the limits of predictability of the atmosphere. One method uses an integration of a realistic numerical model a...
The predictability of large-scale wind-driven flows
predictability large-scale wind-driven flows
2009/11/12
The singular values associated with optimally growing perturbations to stationary and time-dependent solutions for the general circulation in an ocean basin provide a measure of the rate at which solu...
The role of soil states in medium-range weather predictability
soil states medium-range weather predictability
2009/11/12
Current day operational ensemble weather prediction systems generally rely upon perturbed atmospheric initial states, thereby neglecting the eventual effect on the atmospheric evolution that uncertain...
Long range predictability of atmospheric flows
Long range predictability atmospheric flows
2009/11/12
In the light of recent advances in 2D turbulence, we investigate the long range predictability problem of atmospheric flows. Using 2D Euler equations, we show that the full nonlinearity acting on a la...
The role of boundary and initial conditions for dynamical seasonal predictability
role of boundary initial conditions dynamical seasonal predictability
2009/11/12
The importance of initial state and boundary forcing for atmospheric predictability is explored on global to regional spatial scales and on daily to seasonal time scales. A general circulation model i...
Local predictability in a simple model of atmospheric balance
Local predictability simple model atmospheric balance
2009/11/12
The 2 degree-of-freedom elastic pendulum equations can be considered as the lowest order analogue of interacting low-frequency (slow) Rossby-Haurwitz and high-frequency (fast) gravity waves in the atm...
State dependent predictability:impact of uncertainty dynamics,uncertainty structure and model inadequacies
State dependent predictability uncertainty dynamics uncertainty structure model inadequacies
2009/11/11
The implications of state dependent, finite time error growth has been studied using singular values in a chaotic 2-dimensional map. Earlier studies have demonstrated the superiority of the singular v...
Lagrangian predictability of high-resolution regional models:the special case of the Gulf of Mexico
Lagrangian predictability high-resolution regional models special case Gulf of Mexico
2009/11/11
The Lagrangian prediction skill (model ability to reproduce Lagrangian drifter trajectories) of the nowcast/forecast system developed for the Gulf of Mexico at the University of Colorado at Boulder is...