搜索结果: 1-6 共查到“理学 Ensemble prediction”相关记录6条 . 查询时间(0.123 秒)
Verification of intense precipitation forecasts from single models and ensemble prediction systems
intense precipitation forecasts single models ensemble prediction systems
2009/11/12
The performance of single models and ensemble prediction systems has been investigated with respect to quantitative precipitation forecasts. Evaluation is based on the potential economic value of + 72...
Performance of the ARPA-SMR limited-area ensemble prediction system:two flood cases
ARPA-SMR limited-area ensemble prediction system flood cases
2009/11/12
The performance of the ARPA-SMR Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS), generated by nesting a limited-area model on selected members of the ECMWF targeted ensemble, is evaluated for two flood...
Growth of finite errors in ensemble prediction
Growth of finite errors ensemble prediction
2009/11/9
We study the predictability of chaotic conservative and dissipative maps in the context of ensemble prediction. Finite-size perturbations around a reference trajectory are evolved under the full nonli...
Spatiotemporal characterization of Ensemble Prediction Systems–the Mean-Variance of Logarithms (MVL) diagram
Spatiotemporal characterization Ensemble Prediction Systems MVL diagram
2009/10/30
We present a novel approach to characterize and graphically represent the spatiotemporal evolution of ensembles using a simple diagram. To this aim we analyze the fluctuations obtained as differences ...
The Dynamics of Error Growth and Predictability in a Model of the Gulf Stream. Part II: Ensemble Prediction
Error Growth Gulf Stream Ensemble Prediction
2008/7/10
For any forecasting system, the ability to reliably estimate the skill of a forecast in advance (i.e., at the time the forecast is issued) is clearly desirable. In this paper the potential of ensemble...
Ensemble prediction of floods – catchment non-linearity and forecast probabilities
Ensemble prediction floods catchment non-linearity forecast probabilities
2009/12/30
Quantifying the uncertainty of flood forecasts by ensemble methods is becoming increasingly important for operational purposes. The aim of this paper is to examine how the ensemble distribution of pre...