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2022年5月,清华大学政治学系胡悦副教授、爱荷华大学邰月红及爱荷华大学Frederick Solt共著的题为“Democracy, Public Support, and Measurement Uncertainty”一文,在政治学顶级期刊American Political Science Review(《美国政治科学评论》)上网络首发。三位研究者聚焦民主政权与公众支持的关系,并且对这一领域...
We examine the role of declining mortality in explaining the rise of retirement over the course of the 20th century. We construct a model in which individuals make labor/leisure choices over their li...
Some empirical investigations are pointing to the fact that high-tech firms are subject to credit rationing to a higher extent than the avereage. This excess of credit rationing may not be due top inf...
Model uncertainty is pervasive in quantitative research. Classical statistical theory assumes that only one (true) model is applied to a sample of data. In practice, however, researchers do not know...
This paper considers a case in which a regime commonly identified as "multicultural", locally entrenched and stringently defended by hegemonic politics, is nonetheless undergoing crisis and uncertaint...
Background: Population forecasts are widely used for public policy purposes. Methods to quantify the uncertainty in forecasts tend to ignore model uncertainty and to be based on a single model.Objecti...
Background: Economic uncertainty has become an increasingly important factor in explanations of declining fertility and postponed family formation across Europe. Yet the micro-level evidence on this t...
Background: Estimating the total fertility rate is challenging for many developing countries because of limited data and varying data quality. A standardized, reproducible approach to produce estimate...
This paper analyzes how labor market instability since the late 1980s in Europe has mediated decisions to have a second child. In particular, I seek to determine the dimensions of economic uncerta...
The aim of this paper is to investigate how occupational prospects affect first-birth decisions of men and women. Contrasting the continental conservative German welfare state with the liberal market ...
This paper investigates whether unemployment and insecure employment periods merely delay fertility or also impact on completed fertility in France. It analyses both the timing of first childbearing a...
This paper advances a structural inter-temporal model of labour supply that is able to simulate the dynamics of labour supply in a continuous setting and to circumvent two main drawbacks of most of th...
We use the method of Dominitz and Manski (1996) to solicit anticipated wage distributions for continuing to a Master degree or going to work after completing the Bachelor degree. The means of the dist...
Testing for HIV is becoming more available in Africa. Global advocates of testing see it as key to AIDS prevention. However, testing is not always perceived as a good thing by people at risk. Here, we...
We study the self-employed decision and its relation to human and social capital. Human capital is necessary to acquire skills. Social capital dampens the effects of uncertainty about future income. O...

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