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A dynamic hybrid model based on wavelets and fuzzy regression for time series estimation
Financial time series Wavelet decomposition Fuzzy regression SP500 index
2011/3/23
In the present paper, a fuzzy logic based method is combined with wavelet decomposition to develop a step-by-step dynamic hybrid model for the estimation of financial time series. Empirical tests on f...
A Unified Approach to Validating Univariate and Multivariate Conditional Distribution Models in Time Series
Diagnostic procedure Empirical distribution function Frequency domain Generalized Cramer-von Mises test Kernel method Non-Markovian process Time series conditional distribution
2011/4/2
Modeling conditional distributions in time series has attracted increasing attention in economics and finance. We develop a new class of generalized Cramer-von Mises (GCM) specification tests for time...
On discrete stochastic processes with long-lasting time dependence
discrete stochastic processes long-lasting time dependence
2010/12/20
In this manuscript, we analytically and numerically study statistical properties of an heteroskedastic process based on the celebrated ARCH generator of random variables whose variance is defined by a...
Optimal Investment Strategy to Minimize Occupation Time
Optimal Investment Strategy Minimize Occupation Time
2010/12/20
We find the optimal investment strategy to minimize the expected time that an individual's wealth stays below zero, the so-called {\it occupation time}. The individual consumes at a constant rate and...
Fractional derivatives of random walks: Time series with long-time memory
Fractional derivatives random walks Time series long-time memory
2010/12/20
We review statistical properties of models generated by the application of a (positive and negative order) fractional derivative operator to a standard random walk and show that the resulting stochas...
From Black-Scholes and Dupire formulae to last passage times of local martingales. Part A : The infinite time horizon
Black-Scholes Dupire formulae last passage times local martingales Part A infinite time horizon
2010/12/20
These notes are the first half of the contents of the course given by the second author at the Bachelier Seminar (February 8-15-22 2008) at IHP. They also correspond to topics studied by the first aut...
Using self-similarity and renormalization group to analyze time series
Using self-similarity renormalization group analyze time series
2010/12/20
An algorithm based on Renormalization Group (RG) to analyze time series forecasting was proposed in cond-mat/0110285. In this paper we explicitly code and test it. We choose in particular some financ...
GARCH modelling in continuous time for irregularly spaced time series data
GARCH modelling continuous time irregularly spaced time series data
2010/12/17
The discrete-time GARCH methodology which has had such a profound influence on the modelling of heteroscedasticity in time series is intuitively well motivated in capturing many `stylized facts' conce...
Time vs. Ensemble Averages for Nonstationary Time Series
Time Ensemble Averages Nonstationary Time Series
2010/12/17
We analyze the question whether sliding window time averages applied to stationary increment processes converge to a limit in probability. The question centers on averages, correlations, and densities...
Log-Normal continuous cascades: aggregation properties and estimation. Application to financial time-series
Log-Normal continuous cascades aggregation properties estimation Application financial time-series
2010/12/17
Log-normal continuous random cascades form a class of multifractal processes that has already been successfully used in various fields. Several statistical issues related to this model are studied. W...
Constructing the Optimal Solutions to the Undiscounted Continuous-Time Infinite Horizon Optimization Problems
Constructing Optimal Solutions Undiscounted Continuous-Time Infinite Horizon Optimization Problems
2010/12/17
We aim to construct the optimal solutions to the undiscounted continuous-time infinite horizon optimization problems, the objective functionals of which may be unbounded. We identify the condition un...
Integration I(d) of Nonstationary Time Series: Stationary and nonstationary increments
Integration Nonstationary Time Series Stationary nonstationary increments
2010/12/17
The method of cointegration in regression analysis is based on an assumption of stationary increments. Stationary increments with fixed time lag are called integration I(d). A class of regression mod...
Testing for the Markov Property in Time Series
Markov property Conditional characteristic function Generalized cross-spectrum Smoothed nonparametric bootstrap
2011/4/6
The Markov property is a fundamental property in time series analysis and is often assumed in economic and financial modelling. We develop a test for the Markov property using the conditional characte...
Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate
Testing Continuous-Time Models Spot Interest Rate
2014/3/13
Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate.